Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS61 KCAR 190931
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
531 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area today. A cold front will
approach tonight and cross the area Sunday. High pressure will build
in from the northwest Sunday night into Monday...crest over the
region on Tuesday...then continue south of the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will drift today over southern New England
then just southeast of Cape Cod today. Winds will shift SW today
as return flow increases. Temperatures under partly to mostly
sunny skies warm into the mid to upper 70s north with 80-82F
for the Highlands to Downeast coast and low 70s at the shoreline
and islands. Weak open shortwave energy at 500mb may kick off
an isolated shower or thunderstorm into far northern portions of
Aroostook County mainly the St. John Valley to Estcourt Station
area. For the Downeast Coast, in coordination with the US Coast
Guard we have a Beach Hazard Statement in effect from 8AM till
8PM today. The mild temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 may
cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water
temperatures which are currently in the low to mid 50s. We want
to express to those planning to head out on the waters to know
cold water safety even when its warm air temperatures.

Tonight, surface high pressure slides well SE of the Gulf of
Maine waters. An approaching boundary slides SE over Quebec
towards Maine. 500mb shortwave deepens to the west as moisture
increases and the upper level jet sags over Maine with winds
aloft increasing to 95-105kt. PWATs will be increasing overnight
to 120-160 percent of normal into the 1.3-1.7 inch range.
Strengthening upper level divergence will result in increasing
surface convergence ahead of the boundary as a weak low develops
to our SW. Expect scattered showers to expand in coverage
overnight with overcast skies. Temperatures fall back into the
upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

Sunday remains still a rather tricky forecast as there remains
some uncertainty how far south the sagging boundary reaches. As
the low develops and slides NE into Maine its exact track will
determine how much instability can develop and where the
concentration of numerous showers will be located. For now Hi-
Res cams and globals are still showing a few different solutions
but going with NBM seems to be fair compromise. Expecting
scattered to numerous showers north and numerous showers for the
Downeast into the Central Highlands. At this point NBM seems
too high for thunderstorm probability with many of the globals
and hi-res models only giving 500-1000j/kg of CAPE. So, given
this will go with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
from Moosehead to Baxter SP and points northward. For the rest
of the Highlands to Bangor region to Downeast Coast will go with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms
that develop will tap into the +2 sigma PWATs and may result in
heavy rainfall as warm cloud processes will be extending
10-11kft. There is the potential for training storms and
therefore the potential for excessive rainfall as noted in the
WPC ERO. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the
Central Highlands to Interior Downeast seems likely. Of course
higher totals are possible in localized areas. Will continue to
monitor the trends in hi-res guidance.

In terms of the potential for severe weather on Sunday.
Modeling suggests storms will develop across the Bangor region
into interior Downeast and track to the coast with around the
500-1000j/kg of CAPE and 20-35kt shear. Several runs of the
HRRR and others seem to be poorly handling the marine layer with
southerly winds coming off the cold Gulf of Maine waters. Those
same models show in the soundings the southerly winds so for
now will hold off any messaging of severe weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front which is expected to bring some rain to the area
Sunday will press offshore Sunday night. High pressure building down
from Hudson Bay Canada will usher in some unseasonably cool air upon
gusty northwesterly winds Sunday night. The high will continue to
build down on Monday bringing a cool day with a gusty northwesterly
wind and sunshine mixed with cumulus clouds. Winds will diminish
Monday night as high pressure begins to crest nearby to the west. A
clear sky and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the
40s across the north and the low 50s over the south. Strong upper
ridging combined with high pressure to our west will bring a sunny
day on Tuesday with temperature moderating into the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will slide south of the area Tuesday night bringing a
tranquil and cool night with lows again in the 40s over many
northern areas and the low to mid 50s across the south. High
pressure settling south of the area on Wednesday will bring a return
southwesterly breeze which will begin to usher some warmer air back
into the region. Highs will reach seasonable norms in the upper 70s
over the area. The next cold front to approach will begin to press
into the area late Wednesday night. This will bring a chance of
showers in northwestern areas late Wednesday night. The front will
push through the area on Thursday bringing a chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The chances for thunderstorms may depend on
the timing of the front. Current projections bring the front through
morning to midday which would be too early for much heating ahead of
the front. However, if the the front slowed down there may be a
potential for increased heating and some storms. Dry high pressure
will follow for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Today generally SKC morning with high VFR cigs this
afternoon. SW winds 5-15kt. Tonight becoming MVFR to IFR late
with low cigs. -SHRA developing overnight from NW to SE. Winds
shifting S tonight 5-10kt. Sunday IFR/LIFR cigs becoming MVFR
late day. SHRA likely with possible TS especially southern
terms. S winds 5-15kt shifting NW in the afternoon. Northern
terms may improve to VFR / patchy MVFR cigs by late day.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...Some patchy MVFR conditions possible over the north
at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. NW winds, gusty at
times.

Monday...VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Monday night into Tuesday...VFR. Light NW winds.

Tuesday night...VFR. Very light NW winds becoming SW.

Wednesday...VFR. Increasing SW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through Sunday. SW
winds today generally less than 15kt and seas 1-2ft. Winds shift
S tonight and may gust 20-22kt at times overnight. Seas build to
between 2 and 4ft. S winds tomorrow generally less than 20kt and
seas 2-4ft. Winds will shift more WSW late day. Sea surface
water temperatures are generally in the 50-55F range from the
Downeast Coast out 25nm and East to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas will remain below SCA through mid week next week.
Seas may approach 5 ft and winds may increasing to a few gusts
to 25 over the offshore waters on Thursday. Fog may limit
visibilities over the water Sunday night. Drier air should then
allow for very good visibility through early next week. Humidity
may return with some fog or mist on Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Sinko/Bloomer