Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

903
FXUS61 KCAR 141332
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
932 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of high pressure will move south of Nova Scotia
today into Thursday remaining in control of our weather. Low
pressure approaches Friday and crosses the region Friday night
through Saturday. Low pressure exists E Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930am Update...
Only very minor tweaks made. Mostly sunny skies with just a few
high clouds, and warming up fast, on track for the warmest day
of the season so far.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure at the surface and the mid levels will drift off
to the southeast today. The resulting deep-layer southwesterly
flow will advect warm air into northern and eastern Maine. Model
soundings show 925mb temperatures approaching 20C across the
Crown of Maine, with 850mb temperatures of 13-14C. In addition,
skies will be mostly sunny. This will support areas from the
Katahdin region northward reaching the lower to mid 80s outside
the highest terrain. Soundings also show mixing reaching as high
as 775-800mb from around Route 6 northward. This will result in
relative humidity values dropping to 25-35 percent in these
areas. Southwest winds will be 5-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph at
times. Will monitor fire weather conditions in the North
through the day today.

Onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler and relative humidity
values higher for the Bangor region and Downeast. Areas north of
Route 1 will see highs in the upper 60s, with lower 70s likely
north of Route 9. To the south of Route 1, expect highs in the
lower to mid 60s, with 50s at the immediate coast and outer
islands.

Clouds begin to increase tonight from southwest to northeast as
the departing high advects more moisture into the region. There
will still be enough ridging to preclude any rain showers prior
to daybreak Thursday. That said, patchy fog will be possible for
the Bangor region and Downeast. The cold waters of the Gulf of
Maine will allow Coastal Downeast to see lows in the mid to
upper 40s. Inland, it will be a mild night, with lows in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will gradually begin to shift eastward
Thursday through the end of the week, allowing for a weak
shortwave to crest the area during the day on Thursday. Though
there will not be much in the way of synoptic forcing with this
event, diurnally driven showers are quite possible in this
setup. In fact, CAMs are suggesting weak elevated CAPE into the
Central Highlands region, which could result in a few isolated
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Diurnally driven convection
should dissipate overnight Thursday night. S to SW winds
Thursday into Thursday night will continue to provide warm air
advection, though a sea breeze may limit how warm temperatures
get Downeast, with a cooler day in store Downeast and the north
potentially making a run for at least the upper 70s once more.

An other round of diurnally driven convection is in store for
Friday. An occluded low will begin to approach the area from the
west, but general model consensus is for a slowing of the
leading front, with the front likely not pushing into the CWA
until later Friday night. The front could move in faster if the
supporting upper level trough ends up being more amplified than
guidance mean suggests. This will allow for another day of
surface heating, which could be thwarted by increasing mid to
high level clouds. That said, some scattered rain showers Friday
afternoon cannot be ruled out, and if surface heating proves
strong enough, another round of thunderstorms are possible
across the North Woods Friday afternoon. An occluded front will
lift into the area Friday night, bringing steadier rain thanks
to elevated available moisture levels and this increase in
forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The occluded front will continue to lift northeastwards through
the forecast area on Saturday, continuing rain over the area. A
brief dry slot is possible behind this boundary before the main
low pressure center crosses the area. There is still some
uncertainty on how this occlusion will evolve, with most
solutions point towards a triple point low developing along the
coast Saturday and enhancing rainfall Downeast. The exception is
the 00z CMC run, which delays triple point formation until into
the Canadian Maritimes. The latter solution would result in less
overall rain in the forecast area, particularly along the coast.

Continuing the theme of uncertainty in the long term, the
occluded system should exit the area into early next week.
Though this is the most likely scenario, there remains
uncertainty in how long showers linger into our area behind the
system. Once again, the exception is the 00z run of the CMC,
with showers quickly exiting the region. Left this forecast with
the NBM solution, which portrays the chance for showers
lingering into the early week as seen in other global guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions through the day today at all
terminals. BCFG possible at Downeast terminals tonight, perhaps
even at BGR late tonight. S-SW winds 5-15 kts today,
diminishing tonight. LLWS possible at Aroostook terminals late
tonight, especially CAR northward.


SHORT TERM:
Thurs - Fri: Mainly VFR across all terminals. Brief LIFR fog
possible at coastal terminals. S to SW winds 5 to 10 kts
becoming light and variable Thu night. SE winds 5 to 10 kts on
Fri.

Fri night - Sun: MVFR with ocnl IFR in showers. Possible
thunderstorms at northern terminals Fri afternoon, most likely
at MLT/GNR area. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals
through Sat. Steadier rain across all terminals on Sat. SE winds
5 to 10 kts shifting N on Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain well below Small Craft Advisory
criteria today and tonight. Sea surface temperatures currently 42-44F
from the Downeast coast out 25nm and East to the Hague Line
including Passamaquoddy Bay. Patchy fog will reduce visibility
on the waters at times tonight.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain well below small
craft advisory levels through the weekend. Fog is likely to
develop over the waters Thursday through Friday, but may begin
to dissipate as a low pressure system crosses the area this
weekend, bringing rain showers which could also lead to a
decrease in visibility.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible today, May 14th, at some
locations in Aroostook County. Records are unlikely to be broken
further south where record highs are warmer.

May 14th Record High Temperatures (Forecast):

Caribou (84F)               83F in 2022
Houlton (79F)               85F in 1961
Millinocket (81F)           91F in 2022
Bangor (72F)                91F in 2022

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy/Clark
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Foisy/Clark/AStrauser
Marine...Foisy/Clark/AStrauser
Climate...Clark