Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS61 KCAR 041344
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front will exit across the Maritimes Friday. Low
pressure will approach Saturday, then cross the region Sunday.
Another low will approach Monday and cross the area Tuesday.
High pressure builds south of the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
943AM Update: No major changes to the forecast for this update.

.Previous Discussion...
Low pressure system with an occluded front pushes out into the
Atlantic this morning. As the system moves out, there is some
500mb troughing from a surface low moving southeast from
Canada. This low beings in some W/NW flow, which may cause some
brief rain/snow showers in the north today. Dry air aloft moves
in during the short term period as a high pressure system in
the midwest moves east into New England.

Mostly cloudy this morning, and starts to clear out along the
coast by later morning. Becomes partially cloudy to clear
throughout the region by evening. Forecast highs to be in the
40s throughout the region, and low 40s along the coast. Winds
become a bit gusty later today, and relax by nighttime. Clear
skies overnight with light winds could help temperatures drop,
with current lows forecast to be in the 20s throwout the region,
and low 30s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, clouds will increase ahead of an approaching
occlusion. While most of the day may be dry, precip will arrive
quickly later in the day from west to east. Although highs will
be near 40F, evaporative cooling will quickly reduce boundary
layer temps and expect rain to mix with snow and change to snow
in the late afternoon and evening. CAD sets up later Saturday
into Saturday night while temps warm aloft. Critical thicknesses
are quite marginal for snow. A warm nose aloft will ensure
precip changes to sleet and freezing rain Saturday night from
south to north. The last hold out will be northern Aroostook
County where accumulating snow is most likely. All told, just an
inch or two is expected in the North Woods and northern
Aroostook and less elsewhere. The mixed precip will likely
prompt advisories. Accumulating freezing rain is most likely in
the North Woods.

While forcing is generally weak, moisture advection is strong
with PWs increasing towards an inch for southern portions of
the area. This is the moisture from the storms in the lower
Mississippi Valley. A northern stream upper trough will phase
with this southern stream moisture later Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Most guidance shows steadier precip during
this period as a triple point low forms along the coast on the
occlusion. Total QPF for the event was bumped up to over a half
inch for most of the area.

By later in the night, the southerly flow increases with mixed
precip changing to rain in southern portions of the forecast
area such as the Bangor area. The warmer and moister air will
likely generate fog.

For Sunday, the warm occlusion will move through the area and
the frontal inversion breaks. Low clouds/fog and drizzle will
move out of the area in the morning. Temperatures will
climb well into the 40s by afternoon in the relatively mild air
behind the occlusion. A secondary cold front arrives later in
the afternoon.

The aforementioned upper trough is expected to push the front
out of the area Sunday night with weak surface high pressure
building. Much drier air works into the area and lows will dip
as low as the teens in the North Woods by Monday morning. Clear
skies and light winds will produce good radiational cooling
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high will ensure a drier day on Monday with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Another interesting set up develops Monday night into Tuesday as
a strong upper trough dives southeastward from the upper Great
Lakes region towards the area on Tuesday. A strong upper jet on
the backside promises to generate a compact closed upper low by
Tuesday. The question will be the exact evolution and track of
this upper low. The potential exists for a moderate snowfall
Tuesday and Tuesday night, but there is still a wide variety of
solutions continues in the guidance. Did bump up PoPs to likely
for snow in northern zones Tuesday afternoon and evening.

There is much higher certainty in cold and blustery conditions
following the Tuesday system. Below normal temps are likely
Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwest winds could be quite gusty on
Wednesday with wind chills in the teens Wednesday morning. The
surface high builds well south of the area Wednesday night and a
return southerly flow brings temperatures back towards seasonal
norms by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KFVE/KHUL: VFR/MVFR conditions this morning with
isolated afternoon rain/snow showers possible. Winds from the
W/NW at 5-10 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots later today. Westerly
LLWS through early morning, and LLWS possible again tonight.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions Downeast today. Winds from the W/NW
at 5-10 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots later today. Westerly
LLWS through early morning, and LLWS possible again tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. Chance of IFR vis late in snow and sleet. SE
winds 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night...IFR tempo LIFR in snow/sleet/freezing rain and
IFR cigs. LIFR vis in fog possible later in the night for BGR
and BHB. South winds 10 to 15 kt. LLWS likely.

Sunday...IFR tempo LIFR due to cigs and vis in the morning;
improving trend to VFR in the afternoon. South winds 5 to 10
kt.

Sunday night...VFR most probable. Light winds.

Monday and Monday night...VFR likely with light winds.

Tuesday...Chance of IFR to LIFR vis in snow. Variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions in effect through
this morning due to 4-7 ft seas and some westerly wind gusts up
to 25kt in the outer waters. Potential for some Small Craft
wind gusts again this evening into tonight. Winds from the W/NW,
and then shift to the N/NE overnight.

SHORT TERM: The next event occurs Saturday night with
southeasterly winds gusting to 30 kt. These winds will gradually
decrease Sunday morning as warm and stable air moves over the
waters, but seas will necessitate continuation of an SCA well
into Sunday. Another SCA is possible Tuesday into Wednesday with
a gale possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/LaFlash
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Brennan/LaFlash/MCW
Marine...Brennan/LaFlash/MCW