Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS61 KCAR 111802
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- No major changes to the forecast for this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures early to middle of next week,
along with a few rounds of rainfall, will lead to continued ice
break up on northern rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures early to middle of
next week, along with a few rounds of rainfall, will lead to
continued ice break up on northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A progressive upper level jet stream will pipe warm, tropical
into the region. This will lead to well above normal temps
beginning Monday through the middle of next week. High temps
will be in the 50s on Monday, possibly climbing into the 60s
over interior Downeast on Tuesday with offshore flow. 60-degree
high temps should be fairly common over most of the area by the
end of the week.

Multiple waves of low pressure and rain will move through the
region over the course of the next week. The first round of
rain moves through on Monday, with another expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday. While these rounds of rainfall are not
expected to be heavy with a progressive pattern in place, they
may still be enough to bring the potential for ice movement over
northern rivers. Fortunately, what remains of the ice across
the north appears to be thinning and/or rotting in place.
However, where ice remains it will have the potential to break
up and move with Thawing Degree Hours over 1,000 in the
Aroostook, St. John and Allagash Basins.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This Afternoon...VFR/MVFR. NW wind 15 to 20 kt gusts 30 kt.

Tonight...VFR. NW wind 10 to 15 kt gusts 20 kt.

Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt, becoming W to SW.

Sunday night...VFR early, becoming MVFR/IFR late, especially
KBGR/KBHB. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain all terminals. S 5-15kts gusts
20-25kts in the afternoon. LLWS possible.

Monday night...Improving to VFR late. WNW 5-15kts.

Tuesday...VFR. NW 5-10kts early, light and variable late.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. E 5kts
becoming SE 5-10kts Wednesday.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer waters
through early this evening for the outerwaters. Winds/seas will
subside below SCA levels Sunday, then increase to SCA levels
again Sunday night.

Gales possible Monday morning. Not overly confident due to
stable layer right at the surface but potential is certainly
there for gales. Small craft conditions continue over all waters
into Tuesday morning with seas remaining above 5ft. Waters look
to remain headline-free through the end of the day on
Wednesday. Marine fog possible Sunday night into Monday morning
and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL
AVIATION...TWD/ARL